Drug Cartel Trends

Tren de Aragua (TdA)

Origin: Venezuela (specifically from the Tocorón prison in Aragua state).

Trend Overview

Expansion: Rapidly spreading throughout South America (Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia) and into Central America, with growing signs of activity in Spain and the U.S.
Modus Operandi: Known for brutal control tactics — extortion, human trafficking (especially Venezuelan migrants), arms trafficking, and illegal mining.
Structure: Highly decentralized, with cells adapting to local conditions. Maintains some ideological loyalty to imprisoned leadership.
Violence Level: Increasingly terroristic — beheadings, public executions, and threats against officials.
Recent Development: Tocorón prison was raided in 2023 by Venezuelan authorities; many leaders escaped, further internationalizing the group.

Origin: Los Angeles, California — formed by Salvadoran migrants, now primarily based in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala.

Strength: Significantly weakened in El Salvador under President Bukele’s massive anti-gang crackdown (over 75,000 detained).
Adaptation: Dispersing to rural areas, or moving internationally to Mexico, U.S., and Spain.
Activities: Extortion, murder-for-hire, drug smuggling, human trafficking, arms trade. Extremely violent and often engages in ritualistic killings.
Structure: Network-based — with cliques (“clicas”) that can operate semi-independently but follow overarching norms and leadership when functional.

Already designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2020 by the DOJ
Cross-border operations remain a top homeland security concern.
Use of juvenile recruits and intimidation campaigns makes them uniquely dangerous.

Leadership: Despite “El Chapo” Guzmán’s imprisonment, the cartel remains powerful under leaders like Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Guzmán’s sons (“Los Chapitos”).
Trend: Heavy involvement in fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. Major focus of U.S. and Mexican law enforcement.
Expansion: Global reach — operating in Asia, Europe, and Central/South America.
Violence Level: Tactical but lower public violence than CJNG.

Leadership: Led by Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, aka “El Mencho.”
Trend: Known for extreme violence, militarized tactics, and open challenges to the state.
Expansion: Rapidly growing both in Mexico and internationally (U.S., South America, Europe).
Hotspot: Dominates in Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato, Michoacán.

Trend: Resurging in central Mexico after years of decline.
Modus Operandi: Known for mixing criminal activities with pseudo-religious rhetoric.
Focus: Extortion, methamphetamine production, local territorial control.
Note: Often in conflict with CJNG and other local groups.

Status: Fragmented but still active in some regions through splinter groups.
Trend: Focused more on localized control, especially in Sinaloa and Nayarit.
Alliances: Sometimes aligns with CJNG or rivals of Sinaloa Cartel.

Trend: Fragmented; the original Zetas largely dismantled.
Offshoots: Most notable remnant is the Northeast Cartel (Cártel del Noreste).
Legacy: Known for paramilitary structure and brutal tactics.
Region: Tamaulipas, Nuevo León.

Notoriety: Linked to the Ayotzinapa case — disappearance of 43 students in 2014.
Trend: Weakened significantly but still involved in Guerrero state.
Links: Ties to corrupt local police and political actors.

Trend: Declining influence, facing internal conflict and competition from rivals.
Region: Tamaulipas stronghold remains, but contested.
Splinter Groups: Fragmented into various factions with shifting allegiances.

Trend: Reduced dominance but still fighting for control in Chihuahua (esp. Ciudad Juárez).
Rivalry: Longstanding war with Sinaloa Cartel.
Tactics: Uses proxy gangs like “La Línea” to maintain control.